Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Time Capsule/Predictions: 1 Year From Now...

So, by this time next year, there'll be another year of life with D&D 4e under our belts, another Gen Con come and gone, and another slate of new RPG releases out the door.

Here's your chance: comment on your predicitons for the next year in gaming.

Other possible subjects for prediction:

-What are going to be the surprise hits (and flops) of the next year?

-Of the Pathfinder/True20/d20 variant crowd, who will be clipping along, and who will be struggling?

-Where will 4e be in terms of GSL support?

-How will D&D Insider be doing?

-What sort of "industry buzz" will we all be discussing?

-Where the hell is White Wolf headed?

-What will the old school gaming community be working on? What will the titanic controversies and issues of the day be?

-What's hot now that will be forgotten in the next 365 days?

-Will the Ron Edwards/IPR split have worked out well?

-Will 4e sales be holding steady?

-How will WotC's new miniatures strategy be working?

-What company will be poised for a big breakthrough?

-Will I have my Castle Keeper's Guide yet (I have faith)?

-And dear gods, what of Castle Zagyg?

1 year from now (I'll mark it on my calendar), we'll see who was right, who was wrong, and what the jury is still out on. The is your chance to show off those prognostication skills, so have at it! (Fellow bloggers, if you do a post on the topic, let me know, and I'll do a compilation post of predictions).

11 comments:

Rob Lang said...

I can only comment more generically, because there are times when I have no flipping idea what you're going on about!

-What are going to be the surprise hits (and flops) of the next year?
I think there won't be any surprise hits. Dr Who is going to be great but that's not going to be a surprise.

-How will D&D Insider be doing?
As long as people keep buying D&D and playing it, then the Insider will keep going.

-What sort of "industry buzz" will we all be discussing?
Online/Offline crossover. Some nights you play the game online with mates to run combat and the like and then sit around the table for other sections of the game.

-Where the hell is White Wolf headed?
Further into its own crack, I'd imagine. Vampires, Werewolves and such were popular in the 80s because of the romantic revival. It hungover into the 90s for a while but it's now mostly dead. Time to move on.

-What will the old school gaming community be working on? What will the titanic controversies and issues of the day be?
Larger split between indie and not-indie games. The lines are drawn and the big players rarely straddle them.

-What's hot now that will be forgotten in the next 365 days?
4e. No-one will care how its different. They'll just play the way they want to.

-Will the Ron Edwards/IPR split have worked out well?
No. People of big character are not going to back down.

-Will 4e sales be holding steady?
Yep but they need to market more to the masses. They have the system that can sell to all and sundry, now they need to actually get it out there more.

-What company will be poised for a big breakthrough?
Flying mice. Crash gives up his day job and goes full time.

-Will I have my Castle Keeper's Guide yet (I have faith)?
Of course, 365 days is a long time.

-And dear gods, what of Castle Zagyg?
I think the world has moved on. Mongoose will produce something of the same name and very little similarity otherwise.

Will Icar 4th Ed be done and in print at Lulu?
If not, I'll eat my hat. The woolly one. With tassles.

wyattsalazar said...

Being a leading scientist in the field of White Wolf-ology, I can tell you exactly what products they will create in 2009.

Innocents: Storyteller's Handbook
Innocents: Child Molester's Manual
Innocents: The Teen Years
Innocents: Emo Scene

If you thought the roleplaying advice on child sexual behavior and the merit that attracts you to pedophiles was creepy, wait 'till White Wolf expands the Innocents line. You'll be uncomfortable just staring at the covers.

Levi said...

Predictions:

The suprise hit will be an online community rather than a specific game. No, I don't know which one, or even if it exists yet.

The d20 variants will either develop strong working love for one another, and cross-promote each other, or fade into being smaller fanbases.

D&D Insider will fail completely from the standpoint of *Hasbro*. (Note that I'm pretty iffy on this one, but figured I'd throw it out there.)

We will be discussing kinds of buzz that are more individualised and niche than before. Outside of D&D, "Big Buzz" will continue to die out.

The Indie / Not-Indie split will make some progress towards collapsing utterly. This will likely mean increased trench digging by those who really like and want that split.

As for the Independently Fullfilling / IPR split... See: Increased Trench-digging.

I hope that Rob is correct about Flying Mice, though I suspect that Clash would need to get an editor and layout artist to actually *make* the breakout.

Zachary The First said...

Thanks for the responses, guys! I'm hoping we have a few more folks stop by.

I sometimes get the feeling something...big...is afoot. Not a boom by any means, or a crash, more of a...shift. What, I have no clue.

Levi said...

I agree. And I've been trying to put my finger on it for a while - I think it's "the internet shift" that's happening everywhere, and it's hitting us in weird ways.

Patriarch917 said...

I think D&D insider will fail. Pretty much everything it offers will also be created by fans for free... legally or not. I'm thinking of things like power cards, online character creation, rules compendium, online virtual tabletop, etc. Dungeon and Dragon magazine are really nice, but they can also be downloaded from file sharing sites.

I think the miniature line will move completely away from random packaging. I expect we will be able to buy a box full of kobolds, a box full of zombies, etc. by next year.

Zachary The First said...

@levi: Good to know I'm not alone. Maybe it is just more of an internet shift, but its been in the back of my head for a bit now. Guess we'll see.

@patriarch: I'm not sure what WotC wants as far as DDI subscribers, but it should be interesting to see how far it goes.

Rich said...

"What are going to be the surprise hits (and flops) of the next year?"
I'm betting Pathfinder will find a decent audience, even beyond the web community. But I really couldn't guess.

"How will D&D Insider be doing?"
ENWorld will love every incomplete part of it. I think progress will be a little slower for the rest of us to like that much.

"What sort of "industry buzz" will we all be discussing?"
I'll agree with rob on the Online/Offline crossover.

"Where the hell is White Wolf headed?"
More Exalted stuff. Don't know. Not into WW anymore.

"What will the old school gaming community be working on?"
I see folks settling down to work on a larger sense of common community--at least I hope so.

"What will the titanic controversies and issues of the day be?"
Probably some other edgy rape game from a small press publisher

"What's hot now that will be forgotten in the next 365 days?"
The idea of a timely, usable GSL? J/K--I think a lot of the 4e furor (positive and neg) will have died down.

"Will the Ron Edwards/IPR split have worked out well?"
I don't much about this one, but why is Ron Edwards such an asshole online all the time whenever I come across something involving him?

"Will 4e sales be holding steady?"
Perhaps not steady enough to make Hasbro happy.

"What company will be poised for a big breakthrough?"
I keep hearing a lot about Cubicle 7. On this side of the pond, maybe some 4e support company we don't know of yet--the next Green Ronin.

"Will I have my Castle Keeper's Guide yet (I have faith)?"
Answer hazy, check back later. :)

"And dear gods, what of Castle Zagyg"?
I don't want to see Mongoose make this. I'd rather it not be made.

Anonymous said...

I think we'll see a couple of decent-sized gaming companies bow out or go under. I don't want it to happen, but its just a hunch I have.

Alex Schroeder said...

My guess is that White Wolf will be doing their own "digitial initiative" with a much stronger MMO component – instead of running a face to face game and simulating the gaming table using software, players will be playing the new WoD like they play WoW right now, and there will be books that allow you to take that to your gaming table. If they're smart there will be ways for the offline game to change the online game and for new online content to find its way on to the gaming table.

Olman Feelyus said...

I think we'll see slight but steady growth in the industry overall in the next year, despite the troubles in the overall economy. Tabletop gaming as a hobby won't grow much in terms of players, but it won't shrink either. So I don't think there will be any major winners, but no serious losers either. IPR will probably outpace industry growth every so slightly.

So those are my boring economic predictions.

I have one cultural prediction that is already happening. It's a question of how big it gets. I think there will be a bridge made between the story-games crowd and the old schoolers, one that will further erode the "clans" that have built up around certain ideologies. There still will be some "extremists", but there voices will become quieter and quieter.

I'm sure there will be some kind of freakout or conflict next year, but I don't think it will fall along the indie/trad divide.